In
The God Species,
Mark Lynas, a leading science journalist from the UK (Six
Degrees) and former
environmental activist, gives us the early twenty-first century
version of Limits to Growth
by reporting on the work of the Planetary Boundaries group, a team of
leading scientists from their fields who have met since 2010 to lay
out, quantifying where possible, the limits beyond which we must not
push our planet. Lynas, who was invited to attend the sessions of the
Planetary Boundaries group, clearly lays out the parameters for each
of nine boundaries. This information alone is as daunting as it is
necessary. But he goes on to argue for the high tech, large-scale
solutions favored by the international policy community, a brash and
unsettling challenge to environmentalists who would prefer a
small-is-beautiful, grassroots response.
For
each of the nine interlocking boundaries, we are at a choicepoint,
and Lynas argues that in some key respects (nuclear power, the Green
Revolution, GMO's) Greens are lining up on the wrong side of
techno-history.
The book's
challenge for me is twofold. The first is to broaden my perspective
from focusing almost exclusively on climate change as the central
ecological issue of our time. Biodiversity loss, the overuse of
nitrogen, land use, and water shortages are all boundaries whose
interaction with climate change are crucial to the biosphere. The
second is to suspend my “naturalistic fallacy” to consider the
possibility that some high tech solutions might actually be
worthwhile in getting us out of the mess created by the very
technologies that are the hallmark of our human-dominated era, the Anthropocene (a term coined by one of the scientists in the group,
Paul Crutzen, to describe our dominance of the planetary system since
the beginning of the industrial era ca. 1800). This second challenge
is far heavier, for it goes against some of my most cherished values.
So
here is the crux. Are romantic Greens, seized by the “naturalistic
fallacy,” missing the opportunity to utilize technology and market
mechanisms to ease, indeed make possible, the final transition from
pre-industrial poverty to sustainable energy, land use, agriculture,
and housing for the nine billion humans who will be here by
mid-century? Are we the ones who are unwittingly condemning billions
to unnecessary starvation or death by exposure by our purist
opposition to GMO's and nuclear power? What
do we want to sustain, our Romantic values or the earth?
On
the other hand, as Paul Kingsnorth argues in his equally challenging
Orion article,
“Dark Ecology,” Lynas joins a whole group of
neo-environmentalists who place full faith in the very kinds of
technological solutions that have often made problems worse by
creating new, unforeseen ones. Moreover, they enthusiastically adopt
(Kingsnorth's word is “worship”) capitalism, the very system that
has ruthlessly heightened our ability to hunt, mine, burn and
otherwise strip the earth of her resources, as the best economic
engine for sustaining civilization while respecting those boundaries
Indeed,
the book's title contains both hubris and hope. Hubris because
we have usurped god (from the religious perspective), the ecosystem
manager (Eugene Odum) become the God Species, able to create or
destroy the post-natural (McKibben's
End of Nature) world
which we dominate. If we live in a web, as the ecologists eloquently
show, we have the position of a master spider, spinning from a
ubiquitous center in a global technocracy. And hope, because in the
anthropocene, we have the tools to pull ourselves and crucially, the
biosphere, out of the mess. Though he clearly understands what we're
up against, Lynas is an upbeat optimist, identifying
the engines of change as well as signs of coalescing international
agreement after the debacle of Copenhagen, “humanity's darkest
hour.” Characteristically, he points out that we have “only”
crossed three of the nine boundaries, perhaps not so far along (in 2011
anyway) that we can't go back (They are: climate change, 390 ppm CO2
vs 350; biodiversity loss, 100 species extinct per million per
year vs. a boundary of 10; and the nitrogen cycle, expressed in the
amount of N2 removed from the atmosphere, millions of tonnes per
year, 121 vs. 35.) Lynas' figures for the extinction rate are low - the range biologists give is from 1000 to 10,000 species/yr.
The
current blogpost, and its sequel, which will focus on the
implications of Lynas's study for agriculture (and world population),
are condensed accounts excerpted from a broader review-essay
addressing some of the fundamental environmental issues that a
planetary boundaries approach requires us to face. But I have a
working conclusion to
that piece, still a work in progress...
Faced
with the enlarged, much more complex set of challenges that the nine
planetary boundaries confronts the dominant species with (if you
except bacteria), it is tempting to revert to the comfort and
cleanness of our traditional default values, whether we are on the
right or the left, rather than struggling to find the grey middle
which the facts may require. There is no arguing with the facts, as
hard as climate deniers try (or farmers who say more is better to
chemical fertilizer, as well as those who think organic is always
better, no matter the consequences for water and land use, who are
often the same who love country living, but not urban sprawl).
There
is, however, a wider range of responses
to the facts, the boundaries that we are up against. I would love to
be pure and side with the Kingsnorths and their nineteenth century
technology. My gut harbors a Luddite strain that my imagination
feeds daily. On the other side, I find rational arguments about ways
to use our technological abilities persuasive, especially if I hold
fast to the boundaries in question (though sometimes their
requirements conflict). It is this latter kind of thinking that has
led me to reluctantly accept nuclear power as the best bridge
technology to a future sustainable energy world. This requires going
against my gut disposition and my agrarian values, and, crucially,
using risk assessment to favor nuclear power over coal (our main
options for baseload power, which is how the energy world as
currently constructed). Excess CO2 will surely kill us; a few
nuclear accidents, as painful and disruptive as they may be, will
not. In the case of each technology, we need to carefully assess whether it actually helps avoid crossing another planetary boundary. When the technology helps with one boundary, but hurts with another (for example, nuclear waste is a toxin), then we must use risk assessment to help prioritize the boundaries in question.
NOTE.
I have already made several posts about this issue (see April-May 2009 sequence), though I
need to update what I wrote about renewables, which have come a long
way in 4-5 years. I have also posted on food production,
favoring supporting subsistence farming over global food trade. I
now see that as a romantic view, requiring revision. See the next
post, coming shortly.
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Labels: "Dark Ecology", "End of Nature", "The God Species", Anthropocene, GMO's, Limits to Growth, Mark Lynas, nuclear power, Paul Crutzen, Paul Kingsnorth, Plnetary Boundaries group, risk assessment
# posted by Robert McGahey @ 10:53 PM