Friday, December 14, 2018

 

Inconvenient COP

“We cannot fail in Katowice.”  So Secretary General Guterres warned in Poland last week at the outset of the COP 24 conference of parties to the UNFCCC convention, which began in 1992. Nine years ago, at the pivotal COP 15 in Copenhagen, I was among those who saw a glimmer of hope. But the politicians, those who manage the form the awakening must take for humanity to unite to prevent climate catastrophe, have provided scant leadership over these 25 years, during which CO2 emissions have increased 65%. 

It’s that time of year again, when Advent coincides with the COP.   The challenge in Katowice, which is to outline a firm mechanism for achieving the carbon reduction goals pledged by 197 nations in Paris in 2015,  is inconvenient for the nations of the world. They would rather deal with slightly less intractable issues.  And it is inconvenient to Christians who don’t yet understand that, unless we have a viable species, we can’t worship the coming of the Christ-child. 

I recently had an online debate with a colleague who claimed that “Politics is the major determinant of our lives.”  I disagreed, pointing to instances where individuals overcame the external determinants of politics through inner spiritual development.  But if we do not have a form to ensoul in, my point is moot.  So, building upon his point, I will amend it to “Climate politics is the major determinant  for the survival of our species.”  Some  people, their numbers probably accelerating as we approach the Event Horizon (not a Christianized Saturnalia, but the Incarnation as we never imagined it), will achieve enlightenment/moksha.  But the billions who will require bodies in which to reincarnate to complete their spiritual perfection will be out of options – at least in the universe as we know it.

When I carried hope for the UN-led process, Barack Obama was president. He went personally to COP15, where he brokered the outlines of an agreement with the president of China, then our biggest opponent in the process of drawing up an international treaty to fight climate disruption.  At COP 24, China is the leader of the forces attempting to drive a wedge against the Climate Beast, while the US is working with Russia  and the Saudis to weaken the framework set in Paris.  At COP 24, with Donald Trump having served notice that the US will withdraw form the Paris Accord as soon as contractually possible, the US has been further reduced from irrelevancy to laughing stock.  Our executive, executor of the international goodwill towards the US that has been built since WWII, seized the COP24 stage to sell US coal, his agents improbably arguing that the right mix of fossils would help in the climate war. This may have delighted his base in the US, but the assembled company in Katowice literally laughed at the presentation. Sadly, extinction is no joke.

“Our world leaders have been behaving like children.”  This is the judgment of my latest climate hero, Greta Thunberg, the Swedish 15-year-old who has been on strike from school in an effort to get political leaders to awaken from their moral torpor.  Greta speaks from Stockholm every Friday.  At first, she stood outside Parliament, where the cameras delivered a clear message.  Now Parliament has forced her to move over the bridge, but those who are initiated into her courage don’t need the government trappings to get her point.  In Katowice, where she has been featured in several venues, including an address to the hall of delegates, Greta has made it clear that “we” - the youth who are present in force at the conference, “are not here to beg world leaders to act,” but to serve notice that, since those leaders have consistently failed us, the people, led by those in their teens and twenties, will get the job done themselves.  

In the UK, where Theresa May has withdrawn the Brexit deal for lack of votes, and public unrest like that tearing France apart is waiting in the wing, the other wing is soaring.  The Extinction Rebellion, which means exactly what it says, was able to stop traffic in London, simultaneously occupying five bridges. Then  with a sit-in of over one thousand, they blocked access to Parliament,. In just a matter of weeks, they have over 100,000 members world-wide.  I am one of them.

Back in the US, the youthful Sunrise Movement blocked access to Nancy Pelosi’s office two weeks ago to demand that she lead a Green New Deal package as her top priority for the new Congress in January.  A colleague drives his high school daughter to the actions, and reports an impressive degree of political sophistication and passion among the youthful protesters. 

Greta Thunberg has called for a global climate strike by students today, December 14.  There are already large-scale school strikes in Australia, with Canada also gaining energy and numbers.  I sense that this is just the beginning, and my readers can help drive the momentum. Stand with Greta on Fridays at government offices, schools, and other public places. Write letters to the editor. More importantly, recored your own strike event and share it widely.  This is what an extinction rebellion looks like.


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Wednesday, December 31, 2014

 

Lima COP as Patchwork Quilt



After the fraught negotiations at COP 15 in Copenhagen, widely considered an abject failure I posted about a “tiny advent star,” the most modest of hopes. Today, as I sat down to draft my response to COP 20 in Lima, I read what a friend had written about the nature of working on the daunting issue of climate politics. In response to another woman's concerns for the right strategy and the most effective action, she said, “Just stick to your square in the quilt,” not knowing what the final patchwork might be. We arrive at the task of our particular square through a process of following our leadings, and paying careful attention to signs, both inner and outer, that confirm or disconfirm our path. Like the evolutionary process itself, we self-correct as we go, using the feedback process from the entire context of our work

I must confess to being one who has been caught up in strategy and effectiveness, sometimes discounting or forgetting my leadings. This has meant a series of Advents in which I have had my faith in the rebirth of Light regularly challenged by the failure of climate geopolitics. Reading my friend Mary's comment today brings me back to my own little square, leaving the grand design of solving humankind's greatest challenge ever. And today's piece of that square is simply giving an honest appraisal of what happened at Lima.

The image of a patchwork is actually a good one for the outlines of a Paris accord. Instead of a grand design, a treaty where every nation agrees to the same action, the last couple of years of patient exhausting work have led to an agreement where each nation chooses its way forward toward the goal of holding global warming to 2 degrees C. The language in the approved text is “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.” It's not a binding deal. It's all about early adopters and peer pressure. But the biggest three emitters have provided momentum, with the US, China, and the EU promising the most at this point. And they produce over 60% of current emissions. For once, the rest of the world is not pointing at the US for blocking progress.

Still missing is a commitment from the fourth largest emitter, India, which is still playing catch-up in economic development (and I can tell you from experience that it has the world's most inefficient electrical grid). Hopefully that will change by the end of March, which is when nations have agreed to present their “ante,” the initial reduction promises. Narendra Modi, the wildly popular new PM, besides being a business booster, had a something of a reputation as a green chief minister of Gujarat. We shall see.

One of the big roadblocks in negotiations thusfar has been over the climate justice argument. Poor nations argue that those who have historically created the most emissions should provide substantial assistance to developing economies as a kind of reparations payment. The rich nations have responded that the most important thing is to address current emissions, where some of the developing nations are the worst offenders, especially China, the world's biggest emitter, and India. Though the divide is still large, Lima saw a softening of these positions. $10 billion has now been committed to the Green Climate Fund (designated funds to help with both mitigation and adaptation to climate change among poor nations). Most importantly, several developing nations have now committed to this fund, including several South and Central American nations and South Korea (technically a developing nation in UNFCCC terms). This is still a small amount, considering the goal of providing $100 billion a year for these efforts worldwide. But there is now a core of countries on both sides of the divide willing to cooperate.

The biggest boost to a potential Paris accord, and to breaking through the rich-poor divide, was the joint announcement by US and Chinese leaders to reduce (US) and cap (China) carbon emissions a few weeks prior to the Lima conference. China has promised to cap its carbon emissions by 2030, and the US to reduce its emissions from 2005 levels in 2025 by 26-28%. These reductions would be primarily due to the EPA's recent decision to severely curtail coal in the mix of fuels for the US electrical grid, along with last year's mandated fuel economy increases for vehicles, including for the first time, freight trucks. As for China, it has the biggest green energy program on earth, as well as the largest build-up of nuclear power plants, which are virtually fossil-free after they are built. After a record-breaking build-up of coal-fired plants, they now promise to stop building new ones in a few years.

Looking at the global picture, the patchwork metaphor allows us to see that there is indeed a trend towards reducing CO2 emissions, a combination of regional carbon markets, commitments by individual nations, as well as hundreds of cities world-wide. The week of the People's Climate Rally, a World Bank director announced that there was a substantial surge in the world's carbon markets, now covering 25% of carbon emissions. During the Lima talks, representatives of these markets were hard at work making their interactions more efficient.

The COP process itself is adopting this approach, which means more participation, but less assurance of success. Nation-by-nation commitments due by March 31 are voluntary, as is compliance. The hope is that a regular cycle of review will provide the impetus to improve on these initial positions, an  "ex-ante" process whereby the carbon reduction stakes can be raised, driven forward by peer pressure. The potential success of a Paris accord rests squarely on how well this process works. Obviously, for any hope of even getting close to the 2 degrees C goal (which many feel is not attainable), this process will need to ramp up rapidly. 

The clerk of Quaker Earthcare Witness, my friend Roy, responded later in the day to the quilt square analogy, pointing out that the frame and backing for the global carbon reduction quilt is provided by the community. It is the group that stitches the backing and the borders of the quilt. Otherwise, you just have a bunch of squares lying around. This is the context provided by the UNFCCC process, and the whole idea of international cooperation. Many green activists, despairing over the slow progress made thusfar, have given up on the frame and backing, retiring to their own piece of the quilt. That's okay, because the whole process goes forward regardless of our individual postions. But I want to affirm the international process, flawed as it is, because it provides the frame and backing for this emergent quilt.

Will it be finished in time to accomplish the goal of halting runaway climate change? This remains improbable, but we are all working within the web, and cannot step out and see the whole picture, including the Mystery which underlies the process, the ultimate frame and backing for our effort at planetary survival. My bedrock hope is in the power of that Mystery, which supports and transcends the individual conscience and the checkered endeavors of the global community.

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Tuesday, December 22, 2009

 

"ADVENT IS COPENHAGEN"

Saturday, December 19

That was how I entitled a discussion group post the eve of the climate summit in Copenhagen. The next day, I broke six weeks' silence at Meeting with ministry on a haunting Gaelic carol, Christ often comes in the stranger's guise, reminding Friends that, in the climate emergency, it is the poor and island countries who are the stranger at the table. They were indeed present at the table in Copenhagen, but were lucky to get even crumbs from the repast. If Copenhagen has proved the impotence of our international political system, what are we to make of Solstice 2009, and the hope of Advent?

Yesterday, as the COP-15 talks concluded in a whirlwind of desperate diplomacy, I went for a walk with my wife Geeta in the fresh deep snow of our drive. Hemlocks, pines, and rhodos hung low, heavy with snow. Mirroring Copenhagen coming up with so little, the forest seemed to bow, draped in sympathy with the colossal failure of the international political system. It reinforced my deep sadness.

I mentioned this to Geeta, and she laughed, recognizing the pathetic fallacy. But I went deeper than sympathetic magic, recognizing that they are bowing to the Earth. The earth and all her myriad creation, yes, but also honoring her as natura naturans, the infinitely creative matrix of life. Gaia may well be in mourning as the deepest of Solstice nights approached, but she still retains the miraculous power to produce new life-forms.

Then, last night, as I played a variety of seasonal music, marking the whole scope of the seaon, I felt a deep sweetness, surrounded by darkness marked by white tree-sentinels. This was indeed a pivotal Solstice for humanity, and we may now be heading towards climate disaster. If so, I remind readers that emotionally, it is the same as facing personal death within a web of family. Experiencing the “last time” with our loved ones is both immensely sad, and for some, fearful, but at the same time it can be sweet, harvesting the richness and depth we have created through faithful relationships.

So I cherish each little bird I hear singing, rather than remembering when there were more. I admire the grace and beauty of the deer who eat my garden. I delight in the constant number of chattering, busy squirrels, still fed by our stand of hickories in a Southern Appalachian forest that remains, for a while longer, oak-hickory.

If you know your family well, but not the earth-place that gives you a home, then by all means, get to know that place while it still has some integrity. Even if we are headed into a downward spiral, there is so much to cherish.

And as the brave folks at 350.org remind us all today, through we lost a big battle yesterday, the war for climate justice goes on, and the cadre of climate warriors could welcome a boost. But first, gather 'round with those you love, get outside despite the weather and greet your earth-place and its denizens. Enjoy a sabbath. Then, with the New Year, be ready to bring it on again, and that's going to mean holding Congress to the task of passing climate and energy legislation worthy of the science and faithful to the cause of climate justice.

This is obviously no mean task, but when you come to the end of the road, will you look back and see that you were too preoccupied with your own comfort to join the biggest moral campaign in history? Weakened by a rebellious Congress, our political savior had no prophetic rallying cry, only scrappy diplomacy to round up some key developing nations, promising to do more next time. The real heroes at Copenhagen were the little countires who wouldn't fold on the rack of pressure, and the people in the streets, including all the NGO's progressively ousted from the negotiating hall, massing outside as the summit headed into virtual deadlock. Our leaders have failed us; now leadership needs to come from the people.

It's our turn to lead, friends, each in ways that we never dreamed we could. The courage and creativity are all there, if only we have the faith to dig for it.


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